Enumclaw's Next Two Decades: 2013-2033 Part 1--Forecasting

Enumclaw founder Frank Stevenson made a forecast that proved to be accurate: if the railroad built a siding on his land, his 160-acre property would become the hub of activity on the Plateau, despite several much larger settlements in the neighborhood.  Enumclaw would never have developed into what it is today without Stevenson acting on his prediction and offering free property to the Northern Pacific.

What he couldn't have foreseen is that the northwest rail hub would move from Tacoma to Seattle, and Enumclaw would lose first its transcontinental trains and then all rail service.  He couldn't have foreseen the eventual shift from trains to trucks, could not have imagined his town becoming a draw for Boeing workers and airline pilots or information technology commuters.

The accuracy of forecasting ranges from nearly certain (tomorrow) to nearly impossible (50 years from now.)  Looking ahead two decades lies closer to the latter.  Even so, we try to predict change so we can better influence it or at least adapt to it.

History is the starting point.  How did Enumclaw get where it is today?  The second step is to gather reliable information about where we are now, and compare it to the past to discover trends.  The third step is to look at the outside world in the same way, since events there will also shape Enumclaw's future.

Historical (and future) change occurs in two distinct patterns, cyclical and structural; hence, the contradictory (but accurate) statements that "history repeats itself" and "the only constant is change". Examples of cyclical changes are war and peace or the swings in the economy.  Structural changes include technological innovation (the railroad, the family car, the computer), geopolitical shifts (explosion of global trade, the rise of Asia and developing nations worldwide, outsourcing of jobs), and changes in the use of natural resources (depletion, alternative sources).  Confounding these patterns are sudden surprises that could change a lot of things, such as hop lice; or everything, such as a mudflow from Mount Rainier.  

As I wrote in the introduction to the history blogs, it is also impossible to forecast Enumclaw's future without understanding the past, and unreliable even if you do.  Predicting the future is colored by wishful thinking and other biases.  It can be rendered more accurate by understanding trends, and confounded by unforeseeable events.  One way to improve the forecast is to pose alternative futures.  If such and such occurs, then this is likely to happen, but if another thing occurs, this is the more likely future.

The City of Enumclaw has done just that on several occasions.  In 1969, it completed its first comprehensive plan, with updates or new plans in 1980, 1989, 1995, and 1999, with the latest Comprehensive Plan adopted in 2005.  Among the most important forecasts included in these plans are those for population and economic change.  These plans, however, go beyond forecasting--they inform policy to influence the future of Enumclaw consistent with goals of the community in general and sometimes of specific stakeholders.

Population and economics impact nearly every aspect of what the town will look like in the next twenty years, but both are difficult to predict.  "The 1980 plan did not foresee, and therefore did not address the rapid growth of the late 1980s and early 1990s.  With increased growth, the stress on infrastructure and services became apparent.  Deficiencies in Enumclaw's water and sewer systems caused the City to adopt moratoria on annexations and plats allowing only limited development in 1998.  The moratoria have continued to be renewed on a yearly basis into 2004." (1)

The moratoria virtually curtailed residential development in Enumclaw during a period of even more rapid growth in the region, and were lifted just before the housing bubble burst, another event unforeseen by most.  Accelerated development elsewhere, at least in residential housing, was fueled by illegal lending practices and speculation by the big banks and a shadow banking industry.  Even though Enumclaw missed that hollow expansion, the crash brought down property values by 1/3 here and extended the virtual halt of new construction even after the moratoria expired, with a significant impact on city revenue.

Last year, Mayor Reynolds appointed a task force to assess Enumclaw's current economic strengths and weaknesses in light of the past few years' events, and make recommendations for future policy.  The task force presented a preliminary report to the city council in May of 2013.

Since this was an economic development task force, it naturally equated health of the city with growth, an assumption everyone in the community might not share.  To promote that growth, the members recommended three actions to insure the city's future health:

     1-  Promote employment growth in fields of retail, medical and light industrial;

     2-  attempt to attract one or more senior communities to town; and

     3-  ramp up efforts to draw tourists and the dollars they bring.

The task force noted that obstacles to implementing these strategies included "geographic isolation. . . , decreasing population, loss of businesses, and the continued trend toward Enumclaw becoming a 'bedroom community.' "  They stated that Maple Valley and Bonney Lake were able to achieve rapid expansion in recent years, while "Enumclaw has fallen off the pace." (2)

The purpose of these blogs is descriptive, not prescriptive, so I will try to look at the likelihood of various futures rather than promote any one of them. The effort of any group to influence the future is one factor among many that will affect the change.

There are several causes of population change in a small town.  The birth rate is one, but people are having smaller families, and zero or negative growth from births appears possible in the United States in the next twenty years.  It has already occurred in many developed countries.  Patterns are even changing among ethnic and religious groups that have traditionally had larger families.  The steady growth from 1945 to 2000 is over.

3.5% of people in Enumclaw who responded to the Census were born outside the United States.  Immigration has surged at times in our history.  The United States continues to be a draw to people from around the world, but that attraction appears to be in flux now as other economies develop.  For example, "the net migration flow from Mexico to the United States has stopped and may have reversed,"(3) because of increased opportunity at home and high unemployment in certain fields here.  Future policy decisions will likely also have an impact, but it is difficult at this point to know how.  And the surge in immigration following the Viet Nam War does not appear to be happening following our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. 

The Task Force lamented the fact that Enumclaw is a bedroom community.  Nevertheless, a large portion of our town's residents commute to work somewhere else, and much of our growth in the past came from commuters and their families.  Plentiful jobs, cheap transportation, and affordable housing allowed the last half of the 20th century to be the period of suburbia.  A nation-wide movement back to the cities in the past decade could portend troubled times for suburban development.  If new and cheaper sources of energy are discovered, this could slow the return to urban centers.  So could new employment in small towns such as ours, but the cost of transportation will be a planning factor for industries as well as for commuters.

The proliferation of suburbia was possible because of a rising middle class and its demand for single-family homes.  The commuters' need for homes fueled the construction industry here and provided local employment for large numbers of people.  The sewer and water moratoria put a hold on new housing in town, but most builders found ample work elsewhere.  That came to a halt with the housing crash.  There is some question about whether new construction will rebound now in a cyclical change, or whether a structural change will prevent this.  The percentage of people who were home owners in 2012 was the lowest in fifteen years.(4)

Other local businesses besides construction also grew during the boom years, but most have been struggling since 2008.  Their problems in Enumclaw have been exacerbated by the out-of-town spending of residents, and now the town has several vacant buildings downtown.  That is one reason the Task Force recommended a renewed Buy Local campaign.

Another element of population change in Enumclaw is out-migration, particularly of young people.  As youth reach adulthood here, most leave for better employment opportunities elsewhere.  The number and variety of jobs needed for adults entering the workforce cannot be provided by any small town, so most of them must choose between commuting and leaving.

Fifteen percent of the residents in Enumclaw are over 65.(5)  If the average lifespan continues to lengthen, it will obviously affect population here.  And if the Task Force is correct that we have a suitable location for senior living centers, there is potential for more elderly to move to Enumclaw and employment for those who serve them.  Few jobs in this field pay well, so whether these workers would live here would depend upon affordable housing.  The operations themselves, however, would provide considerable tax revenue to the city.

Since the late 1970s, the middle-class percentage of the population has been shrinking, reversing a 30-year trend after World War II, and this decline has accelerated in recent years.  The "jobless recovery" impacted the upper and middle classes quite differently, with unemployment remaining relatively high and many average wage-earners working for less than they used to.  At the same time, the wealthy have regained what they lost in the past five years and the stock market is at record highs.(6)  Much of the profit has come from corporate investment and economic growth outside the United States.  Several decades of tax changes have also disproportionately benefited the rich.  If the declining of the middle class continues,(7) prospects for more homeowners in Enumclaw are not likely.   

"Deep job losses in occupations such as construction, information technology, manufacturing and insurance are not likely to recover. Middle-class families also saw nearly 30 percent of their wealth disappear over the past decade, while the cost of goods and services they rely upon steadily climbed."(8)

The recommended strategies of the Task Force--attracting industry, promoting local business more, and making Enumclaw less of a bedroom community, will definitely be challenges.  One recommendation that could more easily succeed would be the focus on tourism.  Tourist dollars could grow the economy here even if population remained constant, and the additional revenue would not require additional city services.  Discovering how to get those tourists to stop and spend is probably easier than trying to out-maneuver long-term trends over which we have no control.

Since the underlying conditions fostering growth in Enumclaw during the last half of the 20th century have changed, it is unlikely that growth pattern will continue in the 21st--unless new stimuli emerge.  The next blog will visualize several possible futures.

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NOTES

(1)  Winds of Tomorrow--Comprehensive Plan for the City of Enumclaw:  2005-2022.  June 2005.

(2)  Kevin Hanson.  "Enumclaw Task Force Wrestles With Economic Development".  Enumclaw Courier.  June 24, 2013.

(3)  "Net Migration from Mexico Falls to Zero--and Perhaps Less."  Pew Research Hispanic Center.  May 3, 2012.

(4)  United States Census Bureau.

(5) State and County QuickFacts: Enumclaw, WA. United States Census Bureau. 

(6)  "While the middle class stagnated [since 1979], the ultra-rich (the top 0.01 percent) jumped from an annual average income of $4 million in 1979 to$24.3 million in 2006--a 600% gain per family."  Hedrick Smith.  Who Stole the American Dream.  Random House.  New York.  2012.  pp. 73-74.

(7)  According to the Pew Research Center, 61% of all American households were "middle class" in 1971.  Today [2012], that figure has fallen to 51%.  "The Lost Decade of the Middle Class."  Pew Research & Demographic Trends.  April 22, 2012.

(8)  "Middle Class Income, Jobs Quickly Disappearing."  Huff Post Business.  June 7, 2013.

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ENUMCLAW CENTENNIAL BLOG SERIES
The Histories of Enumclaw
Introduction--Enumclaw:  The First 6020 Years
Early Enumclaw:  6000 Years Ago to the Mid-1800s
Early Enumclaw:  The First European Americans Arrive
          The Adventures of Allen Porter's Wagon
Enumclaw's Early Plateau Neighbors
           Schools and Districts
           Franklin
           Enumclaw's Railroads
Enumclaw Becomes a Town: 1879-1913
          Enumclaw, the Cooperative Capital
          Historic Houses In and Around Enumclaw
          Setting the Scene for the Centennial Celebration, 1/27/1913
Incorporation through World War II:  Enumclaw from 1913-1945
          Logging and Lumber
          Enumclaw's Affair with Alcohol and Tobacco
          Tom Smith, Enumclaw Town Marshall
          Local Elders Know Their History
Growth and Prosperity:  Enumclaw from 1945-2008
          History of the Anderson Garden in Enumclaw
          120 Years of Churches in Enumclaw
          From Puncheon Roads to Scenic Byway
Enumclaw History from 2008 to the Present
          A History of Banking in Enumclaw
          Enumclaw News Over the Years
          Fourth of July Celebrations

          Enumclaw News Then and Now

          Bill Kombol Receives 2013 History Award
Enumclaw's Next Two Decades:  2013-2033
          The Limits of Growth
          Alternative Futures